What Are The Chances Of Dying In A Terror Attack?

Lone wolf attackers prowling crowded city streets are becoming a familiar topic for the news headlines, but what are the odds of being involved in a terror incident.

The attack in London saw a solo terrorist shot dead, but not until he had killed and maimed several innocent passers-by and stabbed an unarmed policeman.

The following day, another suspected terrorist was arrested in Antwerp, Belgium, who was thwarted when attempting to drive a car into a crowd on a busy street.

These are the latest in a catalogue of terror – including a lorry driving into a celebrating crowd in Nice, and shootings in Paris and Brussels.

But is this picture of lawlessness and terror on our city streets a true depiction of the violence we face while going innocently about our business?

Baths are more dangerous than bombs

The truth is, data analysis shows you are most likely to die of natural causes or drown in the bath (Chances: 1 in 685,000).

If you don’t take a bath, but prefer the shower, then the risk of a fatal slip is 1 in 812,232.

Becoming a murder victim is a 1 in 18,000 chance.

Analysts also worked out the chances of dying in a terrorist incident aboard a commercial airliner is a remote 1 in 25 million, while the risk of death in any kind of terrorist attack is one in 93 million.

“In contrast, you are 14 times more likely to die in your bathtub than in a terrorist attack and 11 times more likely to die by slipping during a shower,” said data scientist Zeeshan ul HassanZeeshan ul Hassan.

Capability to strike

The figures do not mean a lot if you are the one in millions, but although the horrible headlines and news reels remind us of how terrible terrorism can be, it’s reassuring to know that the chances of falling victim to an extremist are small.

These chances diminish if you live outside a capital city or a country outside of the sphere of terror politics.

Terror incidents like those in London’s Westminster also show security and intelligence tactics are working because terror organisations are losing the capability to strike overseas in numbers.

Groups are finding their ability to take and hold land is slipping away in the face of persistent aerial bombardments. Instead they are moving online to become virtual terror organisations.